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miércoles, 5 de noviembre de 2008

La Recta Final y qué sigue para Obama...


A las 11:03 PM ET las cadenas de TV proyecta el triunfo de Obama.

CNN, NBC y Fox News proyectan que Barack Obama será el próximo Presidente de los Estados Unidos.

A esa hora Obama, que contaba con alrededor de 207 votos electorales, recibió los votos favorables de Florida y de California, dándole 82 votos extras que lo colocaban por arriba de los 270 votos requeridos. Se acabó la tensión, finalmente Obama llegó a la Casa Blanca. Un par de horas después de lo que muchos esperábamos, pues los votos de Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, y Florida se tardaron mucho en entrar. A pesar de que desde el principio Obama tuvo una clara ventaja sobre McCain, y que las sorpresas iban siendo positivas para los demócratas, la tensión al principio se notaba en la cadena CNN. Cuando los demócratas se llevaron la mayoría del Senado con más de 51 asientos las cosas precían ya algo seguras, entró Pennsylvania, entró Ohio, ahí ya sólo era cuestión de esperar. Florida era una incógnita, estuvo todo el tiempo entre 49-51 moviéndose, pero al final se inclinó hacia Obama. Impresionante el comparativo entre la Florida de 2008 y la Florida de 2000.

A las 11:08 PM ET-----El New York Times proyectó que el Senador Obama sería el Presidente 44 de los Estados Unidos, sobrepasando las últimas barreras raciales de la política de ese país.

A las 11:21 PM ET-----John McCain concede el triunfo al Senador Barack Obama. Lo llamó para felicitarlo. 'This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight. ... A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt's invitation of Booker T. Washington to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage in many quarters. America today is a world away from the cruel and frightful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of an African-American to the presidency of the United States.'

A las 12:03 AM ET-----Obama clama la victoria frente a miles en Chicago. En el Grant Park de Chigaco Barack Obama dió su discurso de aceptación, llamándo a la unidad a la colaboración y al trabajo conjunto. Llamó a formar un futuro mejor. Más de cien mil expectadores vitorearon a la familia Obama, muchas lágrimas se derramaron. Especialmente emotivas fueron las de Jesse Jackson, Oprah, y las de toda la gente común y corriente cuya piel tiene más melanina que la de otros y que por ese sólo hecho les son impedidos muchos sueños. El hecho de que Obama haya logrado brincar las barreras raciales no tiene precedentes, es un triunfo importantísimo para los afro-americanos, es en general un triunfo importante para las minorías y no exagero si digo que para el mundo es tan importante como el día en que vimos por primera vez a una mujer ser electa como jefa de gobierno de su país. Obama dijo "el cambio será posible gracias a éste triunfo"....

Pero antes, me mandó un mail:

Gera -- I'm about to head to Grant Park to talk to everyone gathered there, but I wanted to write to you first. We just made history. And I don't want you to forget how we did it. You made history every single day during this campaign -- every day you knocked on doors, made a donation, or talked to your family, friends, and neighbors about why you believe it's time for change. I want to thank all of you who gave your time, talent, and passion to this campaign. We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next. But I want to be very clear about one thing... All of this happened because of you. Thank you, Barack

Obviamente "Gera", es el hipotético votante estadounidense...

Colaterales:

-El Senado de los Estados Unidos se pinta de azul 56-41 (+5 asientos para los demócratas)

-La Casa de Representantes se pinta también de azul 252-173 (+18 asientos para los demócratas)

- En Florida se votó Sí a la defnición del matrimonio (62%), lo que impedirá el reconocimiento del matrimonio homosexual.

- En California se votó Sí a la prohibición del matrimonio homosexual (51.8%), lo que impedirá en el futuro el matrimonio homosexual. Un problema legal interesante será los efectos retroactivos de ésta prohibición, pues desde que la Corte de California lo permitió se han celebrado muchos matrimonios, el más famoso fue el de Ellen DeGeneres y Portia de Rossi.

-Arizona también votó Sí a la definición del matrimonio (56.5%) lo que evitará los matrimonios homosexuales, también en ese estado.

- Bush el gran perdedor de la noche. Anoche, mientras esperábamos resultados un amigo mexico-estadounidense me escribió "Bush logró unir a todos en su contra". Cierto.

- La abuela de Obama, Madelyn Dunham, se perdió, por una noche la alegría de ver a su nieto convertirse en el primer presidente afro-americano.

-Quizá por eso y por la responsabilidad que se echaba en los hombros, después del speech vimos un Obama serio. Terminando su discurso, entró Joe Biden, y Obama se notaba muy serio a su lado, entraron las familias Biden y Obama, y a él le costaba trabajo sonreir. No se le veía "festivo" sino triste (quizá por su abuela) o preoupado, y quién no.

-Qué sigue para McCain? regreso al Senado, su lugar no estaba abierto a elección ésta vez. Cada mandato dura 6 años, y los lugares se renuevan por tercios cada dos.

-Qué sigue para Palin? regresar a la Gubernatura de Alaska, le faltan al menos 2 años. Si se aventará para la próxima, 2012, es algo que hoy no podemos saber. Antier los Cafferty Files de CNN hicieron la pregunta: Qué les parecería Hillary Clinton-Sarah Palin para 2012?

- La familia Obama estrenará perrito. Promesa en el minuto 4.24 a Malia y Sasha. De qué raza será?

A trabajar:

Desde mayo, la campaña de Obama planea la transición, el equipo y las tareas. A partir de hoy trabajarán en construir el equipo y recibir un gobierno con niveles de acepación por debajo del 30%, dos guerras y la peor crisis económica desde hace un siglo. Se habla de un gabinete ala Clinton. Desde hace ías Mike Allen de Politico nos sopló varios nombres aquí van:

DEMS PLAN OBAMA CABINET, STAFF: White House chief of staff: Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.); Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.); or dark horse candidate Bill Daley, Commerce secretary under President Bill Clinton and now an executive with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Deputy chief of staff: Pete Rouse, chief of staff in Obama Senate office; Ron Klain, former chief of staff to Vice President Al Gore; longtime Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett; Jim Messina, campaign chief of staff Senior adviser: David Plouffe, David Axelrod Outside adviser: Abner Mikva DNC chair: Julianna Smoot, finance director of the campaign; Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine; Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) DNC executive director: Paul Tewes Ambassador at large on climate change: former Vice President Al Gore National security adviser: Jim Steinberg, the deputy under Clinton; Anthony Lake, the Clinton administration's first national security adviser; Gregory Craig, special counsel to Clinton; Susan Rice; retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni; Samantha Power of Harvard's Kennedy School NSC senior staff: Scott Gration, Denis McDonough, Ben Rhodes Iraq czar: Mark Lippert Director, Office of Management and Budget: Gene Sperling White House counsel: Bob Bauer, campaign counsel; Chris Lu, Obama legislative director and member of transition staff; Heather Higginbottom, campaign senior policy strategist and longtime aide to Sen. John F. Kerry; Mike Strautmanis, congressional affairs for campaign and former chief counsel in Senate office Chief of staff to the vice president: Tony Blinken, chief of staff, Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Biden is chairman) and senior campaign adviser for Biden; Stephanie Cutter; former Biden aides Mark Gittenstein, Alan Hoffman and Ted Kaufman. Top aide to Biden: David Wade

Chief of staff to first lady Michelle Obama: Alyssa Mastromonaco, campaign director of scheduling and advance; Melissa Winter; Linda Douglass, senior spokeswoman for campaign Counselor: Robert Gibbs; Anita Dunn; Valerie Jarrett; Jon Favreau Communications director: Robert Gibbs; Dan Pfeiffer, who has that post in the campaign Deputy Communications Director: Josh Earnest Press secretary: Robert Gibbs, Linda Douglass, Bill Burton, Stephanie Cutter Traveling press secretary: Jen Psaki Director of Rapid Response: Christina Reynolds Director of media affairs (regional and specialty media): Blake Zeff Speechwriting director: Jon Favreau; Jeff Nussbaum Deputy press secretary: Karen Dunn, currently Axelrod's deputy Press staff morale chief: Tommy Vietor Assistant press secretary: Isaac Baker, Reid Cherlin, Ben LaBolt, Moira Mack, Hari Sevugan, Nick Shapiro Press secretary to the first lady: Katie McCormick Lelyveld White House economic adviser: Austan Goolsbee, senior policy adviser to campaign and University of Chicago economics professor; Jason Furman, director of economic policy for the campaign; Michael Froman, former Treasury chief of staff, Citigroup executive and Harvard Law classmate with Obama Domestic policy adviser: Heather Higginbottom, Jason Furman, Neera Tanden Director of scheduling: Alyssa Mastromonaco, Marvin Nicholson Personal aide: Reggie Love Cabinet secretary: Christine Varney, who held that post under Clinton White House staff secretary: Cassandra Butts Director of legislative affairs: Chris Lu; Mike Strautmanis Political director: Steve Hildebrand, Erik Smith Defense secretary : Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.); Richard Danzig, Navy secretary under Clinton; John Hamre, president and CEO of CSIS and former deputy secretary of Defense; President Bush's incumbent, Robert Gates - would be for at least a year so he wasn't a lame duck. Attorney general: Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine; Eric Holder, who was deputy AG under Clinton and is now with Covington & Burling and led Obama's vice presidential search; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano.

Supreme Court nominee: Washington superlawyer Robert Barnett; legal scholar Cass Sunstein; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Sonia Sotomayor of New York; Elena Kagan, dean of Harvard Law School. Consensus is it would most likely be a woman.

Secretary of State: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson; Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.); Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) Deputy secretary of state: Gregory Craig Director of State Department policy planning (internal think tank): Samantha Power

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations: Susan Rice, senior campaign national security adviser and State Department and National Security Council official under Clinton; Caroline Kennedy Treasury secretary: former Clinton treasury secretaries Larry Summers and Robert Rubin; FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Blair; New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, former Treasury under secretary and Assistant Secretary; former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. Deputy Treasury secretary: Jake Siewert. Secretary of Health and Human Services: Tom Daschle; Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, a physician; John Kitzhaber, medical doctor and former Oregon governor. Health care czar in White House: Tom Daschle. Education secretary: David Boren, president of the University of Oklahoma and former U.S. senator and former Sooner State governor; Former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean (R), who was chairman of the 9/11 commission; Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.) Environmental Protection Agency administrator: Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.); Kathleen McGinty, former head of the Pennsylvania Environmental Protection Agency Commerce secretary: Penny Pritzker; Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius; Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine). Deputy Commerce Secretary: Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) Commerce, White House liaison: Ami Copeland, now with DNC Homeland Security secretary: Former Sen. Gary Hart (D-Col.); William Bratton, Los Angeles police chief and former New York police commissioner; former Rep. Tim Roemer (D-Ind.), a member of the 9/11 Commission; Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.); Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) CIA director: Former Rep. Tim Roemer (D-Ind.); Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) Director of National Intelligence: Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Longtime Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett; Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Former Sen. Max Cleland (D-Ga.); Tammy Duckworth, the director of Illinois Veterans' Affairs, Iraq veteran and former Democratic House candidate; Bush's incumbent, James Peake Secretary of the Interior: Rep. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.); Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Secretary of Energy: California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R); Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) Secretary of Transportation: Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.); Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.) Secretary of Labor: Former Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.); Andrew Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union; Kay Hagan of North Carolina (if she loses her challenge to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole); Jeanne Shaheen, former New Hampshire governor (if she loses her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Sununu) Secretary of Agriculture: Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack; Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) Director, Office of National Drug Control Policy: William Bratton Director, Council for Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships (Obama's renamed faith-based office): Josh DuBois, campaign's director of religious affairs.


El reconocimiento:

David Plouffe y David Axelrod. Consiguieron una campaña ejemplar, estratégicamente impecable y consecuente, el mensaje nunca cambió, el candidato nunca titubeó. Es el análisis que sigue.

así amaneció la prensa hoy:

NAGOURNEY: 'The election of Mr. Obama amounted to a national catharsis - a repudiation of a historically unpopular Republican president and his economic and foreign policies, and an embrace of Mr. Obama's call for a change in the direction and the tone of the country.'

349 Obama electoral votes -- 56 (+5) Democratic Senate seats -- 251 (+18) Democratic House seats Still not called: North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri. AP: 'Obama gained 52.3 percent to 46.5 percent with 94 percent of all U.S. precincts tallied. In electoral votes, at 6 a.m. in the East, it wasn't even close - 349 to 147.'

AP: 'Obama won California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. 'McCain had Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. He also won at least 3 of Nebraska's five electoral votes, with the other two in doubt.'

GOVERNORS – 'Democrats win 7 of 11 contested governorships,' By AP's Andrew Welsh-Huggins: 'Democrats celebrated the re-election of Washington state's Gov. Chris Gregoire and wins in two open gubernatorial contests, including the election of the first woman governor of North Carolina. ... Gregoire beat Republican Dino Rossi in a rematch of their historically close 2004 election. ... In North Carolina, where Democrats have held the governor's seat 88 of the last 100 years, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue defeated Republican challenger Pat McCrory, the longtime mayor of Charlotte. Perdue replaces Democrat Gov. Mike Easley, who is stepping down because of term limits. ...The Democrats' biggest prize came in Missouri, where Attorney General Jay Nixon easily beat Republican U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof. The seat opened when Republican Gov. Matt Blunt declined to seek re-election.'

STATE LEGISLATURES – AP's Robert Tanner: 'On Tuesday, Democrats in Delaware took control of the House and with it the entire Legislature. Their counterparts in Ohio regained control of the Ohio House for the first time since 1994, though Republicans were on track to keep their 21-12 margin in the Senate.'

Ya empezaron los "codazos"

Se trata del Chief of Staff. President-elect Obama plans to move swiftly with his transition, with rapid announcements of his West Wing, financial and national security teams. Top Democratic sources tell Politico he plans to name Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) as White House chief of staff. The logic: Obama wants a bad cop, so he can be good cop 90 percent of the time. And he wants a legislative strategist in the job, so he can move super fast. The choice is a sign of maturity and confidence: Some had thought Obama would instead choose Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), arguing that the Emanuel relationship would be too contentious, since Obama wouldn't want someone standing up to him. But friends say Obama likes Emanuel, and Emanuel would be totally loyal. Obama respects Emanuel's knowledge of D.C., including the legislative process, and his reputation for getting things done. The pushback: Some in Obamaworld are disappointed, calling Emanuel sharp-elbowed and hyper-partisan – not the change they need. And some think Obama really needs Emanuel's legislative genius on the Hill. The status: As of last night, Obama wanted Emanuel and had discussed the job with him. But there had been no formal offer, and Emanuel had not agreed.

Qué le espera a Obama:

Robert D. NOVAK, Chicago Sun-Times, 'NO REALIGNMENT No mandate for Obama, no lopsided Congress': 'The national election Tuesday was not only historic for the election of the first African-American president in the nation's history but also for how little the avalanche of Democratic votes changed the political alignment in Congress. The first Democratic Electoral College landslide in decades did not result in a tight race for control of Congress. When Franklin D. Roosevelt won his second term for president in 1936, the defeated Republican candidate, Gov. Alf Landon of Kansas, won only two states, Maine and Vermont, and Democrats controlled both houses of Congress by wide margins. But Obama's win was nothing like that. He may have opened the door to enactment of the long-deferred liberal agenda, but he neither received a broad mandate from the public nor the needed large congressional majorities. ... Republicans, though discouraged by the election's outcome, believe Obama will be hard-pressed not so much to enact his agenda but to keep his popular majority, which he considers centrist, as he moves to enact ultra-liberal legislation, particularly the demands of organized labor.'

Fuentes: NYT y Mike Allen Politico Playbook.

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