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lunes, 3 de noviembre de 2008

Claves para el 4 de noviembre


La Guía Electoral para obsesos de León Krauze en el Excelsior nos da los estados clave para mañana:

[l]a llave de la Casa Blanca está escondida, para Obama o McCain, en nueve estados. La campaña por la presidencia en 2008 se ha concentrado desde hace meses en dos zonas geográficas de Estados Unidos: el suroeste y el llamado “cinturón del óxido”, los estados industriales del noreste. A esas dos regiones habría que sumarle a Florida, un estado clave e impredecible y los hermanos Virginia y Carolina del Norte, donde comienza el Sur. La elección se decidirá en esas entidades y no en otras. Quien consiga el triunfo ahí será el próximo presidente de Estados Unidos.
-Colorado, Nuevo México y Nevada son la trifecta soñada para el candidato demócrata.
-El 4 de noviembre, Obama necesita ganar dos de la tercia que conforman Michigan, Ohio y Pennsylvania.
-Naturalmente, un escenario de pesadilla para Obama implicaría perder tanto el suroeste como los estados industriales del noreste. Si eso ocurre, necesitaría ganar Florida y Virginia o Carolina del Norte para llegar a la presidencia.
Antes de la hora de la cena, Barack Obama será el siguiente presidente de Estados Unidos.

Las encuestas de hoy en los llamados Battleground States
Florida Obama +4.2 (27 votos)
North Carolina Obama +0.3 (15 votos)
Virginia Obama +3.8 (13 votos)
Ohio Obama +4.2 (20 votos)
Missouri McCain +0.7 (11 votos)
Colorado Obama +5.5 (9 votos)
Nevada Obama +5.8 (5 votos)
New Mexico Obama +7.3 (5 votos)
Michigan Obama +13 (17 votos)
Pennsylvania Obama +7.3 (21 votos)
All Battleground States

Los llamados "swing states" son:
En el noroeste: New Hampshire y Pennsylvania
En el sur: Arkansas (red), Florida y West Virginia (red)
En el mediooeste: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri (red) y Wisconsin
En la costa pacífico: Colorado Nevada y Nuevo México
Casi todos están inclinados hacia Obama, mientras que los tres que tienen (red) se inclinan hacia McCain en las encuestas (realclearpolitics)

Aunque si tomamos el mapa con "zonas no decididas", los estados de Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia y Florida están todavía morados, es decir, la diferencia entre ambos candidatos es de menos de 5 puntos.

Ambos Candidatos escriben en el Wall Street Journal:
The Change We Need - Senator Barack Obama, Wall Street Journal
What We're Fighting For - Senator John McCain, Wall Street Journal

Politico's Fred Barbash, 'Obama presidency could reshape the courts': 'Obama stands a greater chance than any Democratic President since Lyndon Johnson of making an impact on the both the appeals courts and the Supreme Court, especially if the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate, which must confirm appointments.'

Hoy el Washington Post publica:
Topic A
Election Day Surprises Dick Morris, James Carville, Heather Wilson and other political veterans anticipate the unexpected.
Crystal Ball '08
Time to Make a Call Outlook's 14th Crystal Ball election prediction contest pits new school against old.

Los republicanos dicen que los demócratas deben preocuparse por:
1) La tía Zeituni de Obama que resultó estar en el país indocumentada,
2) Pennsylvania, Ohio y Florida pues se acercan más ambos candidatos, lo que para McCain es muy bueno,
3) Sus encuestas que colocan a Obama más cerca de McCain ---o alrevés?
4) Los jóvenes, pues en los votos adelantados no han votado los jóvenes (y yo agrego, pues no el chiste es votar el 4 no antes, es parte del movimiento, de otra manera lo diluyes)
5) El efecto Bradley (El candidato negro Tom Bradley, quien se presentó para gobernador en California en 1982 contra George Deukmejian, en las encuestas Bradley tenía mucha ventaja, pero perdió, el análisis fué que mucha gente dijo que iba a votar por Bradley para no parecer racista, pero en la caseta, votaron republicano porque en el fondo, sí eran racistas).

Una cuestión muy interesante será el horario, recuerden que los Estados Unidos pasan por 5 husos horarios (UTC) desde Hawaii, Alaska, Pacific Standard Time (PST), Mountain Standard Time (MST), Central Standard Time (CST) que equivale al Tiempo Zona Centro en México y el East Standard Time (EST) por lo que la carrera puede verse así:

Obama 194-242-256-334-338

McCain 54-172-197-197-200

El centro rojo del país va a dar la sensación de que McCain se acerca, pero hay dos cosas importantes que recordar, en el centro el único estado grande es Texas con 34 votos, mientras que todos los demás dan menos de 10 y la West Coast, de acuerdo con las encuestas hoy, es toda de Obama, por lo que de ese lado McCain no obtendrá ningún voto. Cerrará con los 3 votos electorales de Alaska, mientras que Hawaii dará 4 más a Obama, para cerrar en 338 (mi apuesta). California será de los últimos estados en ser contados y el estado con más votos(55), así que dará un "empujón" muy grande a Obama, quién de acuerdo con las encuestas liderea allí.

The Politico, Mike Allen´s Politico Playbook:
THE ONE PARAGRAPH TO READ: Nate Silver, the prodigy behind FiveThirtyEight.com (the total number of electoral votes) smartly concludes: 'This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.
'Poll closings, from AP:
7 p.m. ET – Virginia (and some Florida)
7:30 p.m. ET -- Ohio
8 p.m. ET – Pennsylvania (and all Florida)
9 p.m. ET -- Colorado
10 p.m. ET - -Nevada

Extra**
Go to Playbook Now >>
APPENDIX: 'A state-by-state look at Election Day'
WASHINGTON (AP) - A state-by-state review of the race for the White House as well as key congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. The state's number of electoral votes is in parentheses.ALABAMA (9) - McCain territory. Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions safe. Each party struggling to hold an open House seat.ALASKA (3) - Running mate Sarah Palin's state safe for McCain. Convicted GOP Sen. Ted Stevens and Republican Rep. Don Young in deep trouble.ARIZONA (10) - McCain's home state should be safe but isn't quite. Democrats on track to pick up one House seat.ARKANSAS (6) - McCain's for sure. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor safe for re-election.CALIFORNIA (55) - Obama gets the biggest prize, 55 electoral votes of 270 needed. Close race to replace retiring Republican in the House.COLORADO (9) - Obama making a run in a red state. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall favored to win open Republican Senate seat.CONNECTICUT (7) - Easy win for Obama. Democrats try again to defeat Rep. Chris Shays.DELAWARE (3) - Obama's for sure in running mate's home state. Sen. Joe Biden winning new term as insurance policy. Lee Markell favored to keep governor's office in Democratic hands.DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3) - Obama country.FLORIDA (27) - Another tough southern fight for Obama and McCain. Democratic Rep. Kevin Mahoney headed for defeat, but Republicans expected to lose at least one seat of their own.GEORGIA (15) - McCain favored, but big early voting turnout gives Obama hope. GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss faces potential runoff on Dec. 2 in three-way race.HAWAII (4) - State where Obama spent part of his youth is safe for him.IDAHO (4) - McCain by far. Republican Jim Risch winning disgraced Sen. Larry Craig's seat. Democrats target Rep. Bill Sali.ILLINOIS (21) - Obama's home state safe. Democratic Sen. Durbin cruising to new term. Democrats favored to pick up at least one House seat.INDIANA (11) - Obama making a strong push in state next door to his own. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels favored.IOWA (7) - Obama's the favorite in state where caucuses launched him in January. Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin cruising to new term.KANSAS (6) - Easy win for McCain. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts safe. GOP makes a run at first-term Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda.KENTUCKY (8) - Safe for McCain. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in close and costly race. Democrats figure to pick up one House seat.LOUSIANA (9) - McCain's with ease. Democrats say Sen. Mary Landrieu safe but GOP makes a run.MAINE (4) - Obama, safely so. GOP Sen. Susan Collins coasting to third term.MARYLAND (10) - Obama territory. Democrats push to pick up open GOP House seat.MASSACHUSETTS (12) - Obama for sure. Sen. John Kerry gets new term four years after losing White House.MICHIGAN (17) - McCain conceded the state to Obama weeks ago. Democratic Sen. Carl Levin safe.MINNESOTA (10) - Part of Obama's base. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is in a difficult race vs. Al Franken and independent Dean Barkley.MISSISSIPPI (6) - Southern state for McCain. Appointed Sen. Roger Wicker struggling for final four years of term; veteran Sen. Thad Cochran safe for re-election.MISSOURI (11) - Classic presidential swing state. Democrat Jay Nixon favored to replace retiring Republican governor.MONTANA (3) - McCain favored, but Obama launched late push. Democratic Sen. Max Baucus and Gov, Brian Schweitzer safe for new terms.NEBRASKA (5) - McCain state; Obama making play for one electoral vote. Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns easy winner for seat of retiring Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel.NEVADA (5) - Western toss-up. Democrats take aim at GOP Rep. Jon Porter.NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) - Obama territory. GOP Sen. John Sununu in uphill climb for new term. Democratic Gov. John Lynch easy winner.NEW JERSEY (15) - Safe for Obama. Ditto Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Republican retirements create two highly competitive House races.NEW MEXICO (5) - Obama's to lose. Retirement of GOP Sen. Pete Domenici gives Democrats a pickup.NEW YORK (31) - Obama's for sure. Democrats close in on at least two GOP-held House seats.NORTH CAROLINA (15) - Polls close in one of Obama's southern targets. GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan consistently in polls. Close gubernatorial contest.NORTH DAKOTA (3) - Leaning McCain. Republican Gov. John Hoeven on track for new term.OHIO (20) - Obama ahead in late polls in state McCain must win. Democrats on track to pick up at least one House seat.OKLAHOMA (7) - McCain's by far. Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe safe for new term.OREGON (7) - Obama's an easy winner in mail-in ballot state. Also made a television commercial to help Jeff Merkley, in extremely close race against GOP Sen. Gordon Smith.PENNSYLVANIA (21) - Obama ahead in polls in blue state that McCain targeted. Democratic Reps. Paul Kanjorski and John Murtha in jeopardy.RHODE ISLAND (4) - Part of Obama's base. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed a sure bet for new term.SOUTH CAROLINA (8) - McCain's with ease. Close ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on track for re-election.SOUTH DAKOTA (3) - McCain country. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson safe despite lingering speech problems stemming from brain hemorrhage in 2006.TENNESSEE (11) - Easy win for McCain. GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander coasting.TEXAS (34) - President Bush's home state for McCain. GOP Sen. John Cornyn on track for new term.UTAH (5) - As safe as anything can be for McCain. Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman coasting to new term.VERMONT (3) - Obama territory. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas favored but race could go to legislature.VIRGINIA (13) - Obama seems ahead in traditionally Republican state. Mark Warner should win open GOP Senate seat. Democrats figure to gain at least one seat in House.WASHINGTON (11) - Obama with ease. Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire in tough rematch vs. 2004 foe.WEST VIRGINIA (5) - McCain favored, but Obama ran ads late. Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Gov. Joe Manchin safe for new term.WISCONSIN (10) - Obama territory. Republicans challenge Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen.WYOMING (3) - Safe for McCain. One full Senate term and one partial, both easy GOP victories.

También***Chuck Todd’s state-by-state election guide ***
NBC’s political director tells you what to expect in each state on Tuesday
Aquí pego solamente los estados que hay que ver:

Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in "toss-up" land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I'd make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party's groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party's comeback should start in one of these two states because they are microcosms of the GOP's issues.

Nevada: As I've been hinting for quite a bit, the situation facing state Republican parties across the country has as much to do with McCain's problems in some battlegrounds as it has to do with Bush. The state GOP in Nevada is a mess because of the nutty problems besetting the state's Republican governor, Jim Gibbons. The guy has had a high-profile divorce from, shall we say, his very colorful ex-wife. He's also had a bout or two with ethics issues. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has organized the heck out of this state and while I expect it to be very close on Election Day, McCain's got issues in Nevada. He may yet eke it out, but we shall see. As for down the ballot, I'm keeping an eye on the 3rd District where Republican Jon Porter — who is preparing to challenge Harry Reid in 2010 — appears to be the slight underdog against Democrat Dina Titus. Porter has a way of making comebacks so don't count him out.

Ohio: One of the better state Republican parties is right here in the Buckeye State; it's why so many of us aren't ready to count McCain out yet in Ohio. The Republican machine is a good one. The Democrats had a terrible state organization here before 2004 but have since put together a very impressive operation. If Ohio does go south on McCain, he could take a couple of House seats down with him, giving the Democrats control of that House delegation. The two Cincinnati-area House races, as well as the open seats are what the Republicans are worried about.

Pennsylvania: Ah, the Keystone state. Is it in play or not? The McCain folks have no choice but to believe that it is. They are hoping that party I.D. snaps back and that some sort of race component kicks in to salvage McCain. I don't know. If George W. Bush couldn't carry the state, why should we believe McCain can? Ironically, Republicans have a shot at winning two House seats thanks to incumbent Democratic gaffes; Both Jack Murtha and Paul Kanjorski are on the brink. Could Pennsylvania be the only state in the union where Republicans net more House seats than Democrats?

Virginia: This state and the Republican Party are just not in sync. I'm convinced if the state GOP were in better shape, McCain would be in better shape. But because the state party is such a mess, McCain's in trouble. Mark Warner is coasting to an easy senate victory and the GOP could lose one to three House seats. Just a devastating time to be a Republican in Virginia.

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Además de los candidatos favoritos de los medios y de Gera´s Place, existen muchos otros por los siguientes partidos:
Ralph Nader (Candidato Independiente)
Partido Libertario
Partido de la Constitución
Partido Verde
Partido Independiente
Partido Boston Tea
Partido de la Prohibición
Partido de la Reforma de los Estados Unidos
Partido Socialista
Partido Socialista de los Trabajadores
Partido por el Socialismo y la Liberación

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