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miércoles, 23 de abril de 2008

Nuevo Super para Obama. Análisis post-PA


Lo dicho:
El Gob. Brad Henry de Oklahoma, anunció hoy que apoya a Barack Obama.

The Politico.
La columna de Mike Allen, Playbook hace estas interesantes observaciones:

The CBS News Pennsylvania delegate allocation gives 82 to Clinton and 69 to Obama, with seven unallocated. Obama had a 139-delegate lead going in, now cut to 126, per CBS.

THE STORYLINES GOING FORWARD:
1) Senator Clinton has showed stunning staying power in the face of a delegate deficit that still puts her chances of becoming the nominee somewhere between improbable and impossible. Many pundits and party leaders consider the continued pursuit delusional. But the senator, her husband and their daughter kept up an exhausting, courageous blitz that delivered a bigger win than just about anyone in either camp had forecast.
2) Her argument now is POLITICAL REALPOLITIK: Obama cannot win the places and groups that are necessary in order to capture the presidency. There are more questions about him than ever. Don't be hypnotized. Come to your senses and nominate the candidate who gives you a surer shot at taking the White House away from the Republicans.
3) Senator Obama remains the probable nominee. She is unlikely to overtake him mathematically, and the party is unlikely to betray African-American base by using backroom maneuvers to deny Obama a nomination that he appears to have won. But every day that the race goes one gives the Clintons one more day to figure something out - and Obama one more day of exposure to some unforeseeable political calamity.
4) Senator Obama has some 'splaining to do. Politics has a well-known bandwagon effect: People go with the winner. After all this time as the frontrunner, why didn't more Pennsylvanians climb aboard? Why was such a weak candidate - vastly outspent - able to do so well at time when she was on political life support and he has built one of the most stunning juggernauts in American history?
5) No debate is scheduled, and Obama doesn't seem inclined to accept one. The Clinton forces will argue that if he won't debate at this moment of potential vulnerability, he's not as strong as he looks or claims.
6) Many top Democrats have primary fatigue and are convinced that Clinton is going to lose - it's just a matter of how long she waits, and how much more she helps John McCain in the process. Despite 1-5, there is going to be a very loud cry to MOVE ON!

A bright young Democrat e-mailed us: 'No tide turning. Almost everyone I talked to not aligned with a campaign is basically at the same place: Obama is going to be the nominee, so let's just get on with it. Even folks inclined (or previously) supporting Clinton see no credible path to the nomination so why is she dragging this out for so long? She really is hurting Obama and I think the party is getting [ticked] off about it.' But who will tell the Clintons? This morning, no one.

There was a two-pronged test of a true Pennsylvania win:
1) Will there be more pressure on her to get out, or less, and
2) Will she be able to raise substantial money off the result?
Clinton passed both with flying colors.

Clinton ya no está conectada al respirador artificial.
Respira sola y no da signos de que vaya a dejar de hacerlo pronto.
Anoche recaudó cerca de 2.5 millones de dólares online.

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