Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta elecciones EU noviembre. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta elecciones EU noviembre. Mostrar todas las entradas
viernes, 21 de noviembre de 2008
jueves, 6 de noviembre de 2008
South Park y la elección
South Park la noche de la elección. Todo era un plan....
Aceptado: Palin es ignoramus with lipstick
Psst... Sarita, mira la foto, todo eso que está apilado en el librero, son libros!!! ajá, y sirven para leer y aprender cosas, como que África es un continente.
miércoles, 5 de noviembre de 2008
El amargo final de una relación por conveniencia
Pues aquí la revista NEWSWEEK nos aclara la relación McCain-Palin y la verdadera historia de la Hockey Mom con tarjeta de crédito:
--'McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin during the campaign, and aides kept him in the dark about the details of her spending on clothes because they were sure he would be offended. Palin asked to speak along with McCain at his Arizona concession speech Tuesday night, but campaign strategist Steve Schmidt vetoed the request.' ouuuch!
NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family-clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent 'tens of thousands' more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide ... said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.'
Y ahora han dicho "ala Martita Sahagún (de Fox)" que regalarán o subastarán toda la ropa de Sarita..uy que altruistas...!
Sphere: Related Content
Gracias Lectores
Lectores queridos, son las 05.38am para mi. Estoy exhausta.
Fue una madrugada muy emocionante aunque sabíamos que Obama ganaría, las encuestas son falibles, pero era difícil que McCain repuntara.
Espero que Gera´s Place haya cubierto la información que necesitaban conocer.
Ya declaradas las proyecciones en los principales medios de comunicación de ese país y del mundo, y sabiendo que Barack Obama será el primer presidente negro de los EEUU, me voy a dormir.
Quédense por aquí.
Ah! Gera´s Place no desaparece después de las elecciones, fueron durante este 2008 su tema principal, pero no fueron la razón de la existencia de este Blog.
Gracias por sus visitas y espero que vuelvan....
Desafortunadamente en ciclo de noticias mexicano el triunfo de Obama pasó a un segundo plano por el lamentable accidente aéreo en la Cd. de México en el que perdieron la vida varias personas, entre ellas el Srio. de Gobiernación, un ex-subprocurador de la república y el procurador de Sn Luis Potosí, así como otros pasajeros y personas que se encontraban en el lugar en el que cayó la aeronave.
Pre-Celebrando
Obamaniacs en el Grant Park para celebrar el casi seguro triunfo de Barack Obama (Chicago).
Sphere: Related Content
martes, 4 de noviembre de 2008
Votando(se)
--Michelle, si votaste por mi verdad?--
Sarita al parecer no ha votado...no encuentro fotos suyas....ahhh el horario, claro! Aquí está Sarita votando:
Y una sorpre: Compró el periódico! si lo leerá, eso es otra historia....lo que pasa es que le llamo la atención el titular del Anchorage Daily News 'Board exonerates Palin'.....
Hora x Hora que esperar
Así se ve el mapa hoy antes de las elecciones, los colores sólidos quiere decir que entre los candidatos hay más de 10 puntos de diferencia, los colores transparentes entre 5 y 10 puntos y los grises menos de 5 puntos. Hoy el mapa amaneció diferente de ayer, con más zonas grises.
Como ya decíamos ayer, los EEUU pasan por 5 zonas horarias, por lo que los resultados irán entrando conforme cierren las casillas y se cuenten los resultados. En teoría los medios no pueden dar por ganado un estado antes de que cierren las casillas y se cuenten todos los votos, pero habrá resultados contundentes que serán llamados (call).
A las 7pm ET (hora de la Costa Este) cerrarán las primeras casillas. Indiana es un estado a observar, quizá cierra antes (aunque no lo creo pues se reporta que hay una afluencia impresionante). Indiana es un estado rojo, es decir, republicano. Si Obama se lo lleva, McCain puede comenzarse a preocupar.
A la misma hora cerrarán las casillas en North Carolina, Virginia, Florida y New Hampshire. Los tres primeros son estados rojos, si se pintan de azul McCain empezará a sufrir. Florida está muy cerrado, mientras New Hampshire tiene fama de ser inesperado, hoy las encuestas lo pintan de azul, McCain confía en que sean "maveriks" claro, como él. Georgia está gris, sería una sorpresa verla azul...
A las 7.30 ET cierran el gran premio Ohio y North Carolina que apunta rojo, pero todo puede pasar. Si Obama se lleva N Carolina, La avalancha azul será dificil de parar. Ohio tiene 20 votos, por lo que es un "must", el 2000 votó rojo.
A las 8 ET viene el importantísimo Pennsylvania, estado que dió respiración artificial a Hillary con el famoso blue collar vote, aquí, más que en otros lugares la raza jugó un papel importante. Ambos candidatos han luchado por los corazones de los phillies..-También cierra Missouri, tradicionalmente rojo, en esta ocasión sigue gris... 11 votos.
A las 9 vienen la hora McCain pues cierran las casillas del centro, casi todo rojo y tendiendo hacia lo rojo, la sorpresa podría ser Colorado y New Mexico. Montana y Arizona juntos aportan 13 votos nada despreciables para McCain.
A las 10 viene el cierre, McCain no obtendrá ya casi nada. Cierran las casillas de la costa Oeste con la cereza California y sus 55 delegados.
Lo más probable es que antes de las 9 ya se declare ganador a Obama, pues la decisión recae en la costa este: Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Ohio y Pennsylvania.
Estas elecciones la mitad de los votantes probarán nuevos métodos para realizar su voto, si recuerdan en drama Bush v Gore en Florida y las "boletas mariposa", no esperemos que este 2008 no haya dramas. Cada estado tiene sus propias reglas, de manera que no podemos excluir que 2008 sea una elección sin sorpresas. Además, se espera una importante participación lo que atrasará los votos, el cierre de casillas y el recuento de votos...Aún así en ese país se irán a dormir con certidumbre, no sé si felicidad, pero sabrán que les esperan el próximo cuatrienio.
En 1960 votaron el 64% de los ciudadanos, el record de asistencia a una elección fue hace un silgo, con 66% de los ciudadanos: 1908 William Howard Taft, Republicano, venció al gran orador Demócrata, William Jennings Bryan (y a un socialista real!! Eugene V. Debs).
otra opción para la cobertura, Financial Times
US Election: Voting gets under way
The longest, most expensive and - some say - most important presidential election campaign has reached polling day. Keep yourself fully up-to-date on all events as they unfold with FT.com's special in depth coverage, and get expert insight into the larger global implications of the outcome.• US Election in depth LIVE - the results table, video and commentary all in one place as the night progresses• The battleground states - interactive voting history and trends by state• Clive Crook election analysis - the heavy weight of expectations• Short View video - John Authers looks at what the market expects to happen• Google CEO Eric Schmidt on election - America will find opportunity in scarcity• Election Q&A with Christopher Buckley - Mr. Buckley will answer FT readers' questions the day after the pollsMake FT.com your primary destination for all the key news and analysis both during and after the big event. Full in depth coverage of the US Election
Obama´s Pig is still flyin´
Alguien dijo:
"Obama Presidente? Sí y después comenzarán a volar cerdos en el desierto"
Este simpático cerdito inflable, soltado en el festival de Coachella por Roger Walter, flota hoy sin rumbo, quizá en algún desierto...
Agradezco esta nota a quien me la envió ;-)
Obama for President
Andrew Sullivan, de nuevo, nos da sus razones para votar por Barack Obama, y nos recuerda un análisis suyo, de diciembre de 2007: Goodby to all that: Why Obama Matters, que ya habíamos citado aquí, y que vale la pena recordar....
"These mistakes were compounded - and in large part created - by what I believe will one day be seen as the core event of the last eight years: the collapse of constitutional order and the rule of law fomented in a mixture of hubris and laziness by the president himself. It is now indisputable that the president and vice-president of the United States engineered a de facto coup against the constitution after 9/11, declaring themselves above any law, any treaty, and any basic moral norm in their misguided mission to rid the world of evil. This blog has watched this process with increasing dismay - and watched several attempts to bring the US back to sanity foiled by a relentless and unhinged vice-president's office."
"We have also learned, much more importantly, that McCain would appoint Justices to the Supreme Court who would acquiesce to and constitutionally entrench the dictatorial presidency that Bush-Cheney believe in as loyally as Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Scalia. That means we are one vote away from the court ever restraining this unchecked executive. It doesn't matter who that executive is and what party he or she belongs to."
"If I were to give one reason why I believe electing Barack Obama is essential tomorrow, it would be an end to this dark, lawless period in American constitutional government. The domestic cultural and political reasons for an Obama presidency remain as strong as they were when I wrote "Goodbye To All That" over a year ago. His ability to get us past the culture war has been proven in this campaign, in the generation now coming of age that will elect him if they turn out, in Obama's staggering ability not to take the bait. His fiscal policies are too liberal for me - I don't believe in raising taxes, I believe in cutting entitlements for the middle classes as the way to fiscal balance. I don't believe in "progressive taxation", I support a flat tax. I don't want to give unions any more power. I'm sure there will be moments when a Democratic Congress will make me wince. But I also understand that money has to come from somewhere, and it will not come in any meaningful measure from freezing pork or the other transparent gimmicks advertized in advance by McCain. McCain is not serious on spending. But he is deadly serious in not touching taxes. So, on the core question of debt, on bringing America back to fiscal reason, Obama is still better than McCain. If I have to take an ideological hit to head toward fiscal solvency, I'll put country before ideology."
Completo aquí
Que siempre no
Gov. Sarah Palin Cleared of Ethics ChargesTimothy J. Petumenos, the independent counsel to the AlaskaPersonnel Board, concluded that in the firing of the formerAlaska public safety commissioner Walt Monegan, "There is noprobable cause to believe that the governor or any otherstate official violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act inconnection with these matters."Read More:http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na
lunes, 3 de noviembre de 2008
La Pesadilla aparece....
WASHINGTON – It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.
But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.
If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain's way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.
To win, McCain must hold on to most states that went to Bush in 2004, or pick up one or more that went to Democrat John Kerry four years ago to make up for any losses. McCain's biggest target for a pickup is Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and where several public polls show Obama's lead shrinking from double digits to single digits.
Then there's the question of a tie in the Electoral College. In that case, members of the next House would select the winner.
If Obama carries every state that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, then he and McCain each would have 269 electoral votes. A tie also would result if McCain takes New Hampshire from the Democrats' column but loses Iowa, New Mexico and another state that Bush won, Colorado.
In an election year that's defied conventional wisdom time and again, anything can happen.
más...
Ya pasó con Al Gore...la diferencia de votos en Florida fué de poquito más de 500 y la Corte entró a resolver...y ya sabemos qué pasó!
Play Video Video: Eleventh Hour Issue FOX News
Play Video Video: Voting 101 ABC News
****Breaking News***
More on Barack Obama & Joe Biden
Obama's grandmother dies AFP
Obama's grandmother dies a day before election AP
Obama's grandmother dies of cancer in Hawaii Reuters
Obama no es el mesías
Andrew Sullivan escribe en el Times Online "Obama is no Messiah" y nos hace un recuento de los retos que enfrentará el gobierno de Obama, indispensable lectura para quienes crean que al ganar Obama, todo será paz y amor....
"Obama – for extra historic piquancy – is from Illinois and began his campaign in Springfield, where Abraham Lincoln started his. Like Lincoln, Obama is trained in the law, came from a humble background, and is aiming for the presidency with almost no executive experience.
People forget how inexperienced Lincoln was when he took office after one of the worst presidencies in American history – James Buchanan’s. Lincoln had held no legislative or executive office and had been a congressman for only two years previously. He became a national star primarily because of his oratory. Sound familiar?
Lincoln’s task is Obama’s: to unite a deeply fractured country. Lincoln’s challenges were far greater, but if Obama wins on Tuesday he will still face an immense set of challenges....In the coming week, if he is elected, we would be wise to resist euphoria or sentiment. But we would be wilfully blind not to sense the gravity and potential of the moment as well. We could have the first black president, with a congressional majority of a size not seen since Lyndon Johnson. We could see a landslide among the young. We could see an unprecedented African-American turnout – a moment when black Americans actively take ownership for the first time of the society in which they have always been such an integral part.
We simply do not know what new realities this moment could unleash. What we do know is that this is history – epic, deep, momentous history. Let us keep our heads. But let us not numb our hearts..."
Por su parte Andrés Oppenheimer augura dos escenarios posibles:
El optimista en el que Obama gana por pocos votos, forma un gobierno bipartisano y plural, los demócratas no ganan la mayoría del Congreso y se ven obligados a negociar y optar por aumentar la confianza de los consumidores y los mercados; y el pesimista, en el que Obama se lleva las elecciones, los demócratas se llevan el Congreso y ven en ello mandato para llevar a cabo el 100% de la agenda del partido, lo que no sería muy bueno desde el punto de vista del libre comercio, las finanzas y en consecuencia la economía nacional e internacional...
Los electores tienen el futuro en sus manos, qué decidirán? lo sabremos en las próximas 36 horas...
Por lo pronto adelanto, Obama no será un rey ni tampoco será el mesías. Obama, como todos los políticos en campaña ha hecho promesas que no dependen al 100% de él, dependen del Congreso, dependen de la Constitución, dependen del presupuesto, de la situación económica y de la situación internacional. Obama no acabará con la "misión" imperial de los Estados Unidos, Obama no será amigo de las naciones ni hará lo que Europa quiera. Obama no se sentará a tomar café con Hugo Chávez ni con Castro y les dirá que son padrísimos. Obama, si gana, será Presidente de los Estados Unidos, y será y seguirá en ese sentido la tradición imperialista y "vigilante" del mundo. El cambio sería que contrariamente a Bush, Obama ve la guerra como la última opcióny la Constitución y los derechos y libertades como la regla y no la excepción. No más, pero tampoco menos.
Sphere: Related Content
Claves para el 4 de noviembre
La Guía Electoral para obsesos de León Krauze en el Excelsior nos da los estados clave para mañana:
[l]a llave de la Casa Blanca está escondida, para Obama o McCain, en nueve estados. La campaña por la presidencia en 2008 se ha concentrado desde hace meses en dos zonas geográficas de Estados Unidos: el suroeste y el llamado “cinturón del óxido”, los estados industriales del noreste. A esas dos regiones habría que sumarle a Florida, un estado clave e impredecible y los hermanos Virginia y Carolina del Norte, donde comienza el Sur. La elección se decidirá en esas entidades y no en otras. Quien consiga el triunfo ahí será el próximo presidente de Estados Unidos.
-Colorado, Nuevo México y Nevada son la trifecta soñada para el candidato demócrata.
-El 4 de noviembre, Obama necesita ganar dos de la tercia que conforman Michigan, Ohio y Pennsylvania.
-Naturalmente, un escenario de pesadilla para Obama implicaría perder tanto el suroeste como los estados industriales del noreste. Si eso ocurre, necesitaría ganar Florida y Virginia o Carolina del Norte para llegar a la presidencia.
Antes de la hora de la cena, Barack Obama será el siguiente presidente de Estados Unidos.
Las encuestas de hoy en los llamados Battleground States
Florida Obama +4.2 (27 votos)
North Carolina Obama +0.3 (15 votos)
Virginia Obama +3.8 (13 votos)
Ohio Obama +4.2 (20 votos)
Missouri McCain +0.7 (11 votos)
Colorado Obama +5.5 (9 votos)
Nevada Obama +5.8 (5 votos)
New Mexico Obama +7.3 (5 votos)
Michigan Obama +13 (17 votos)
Pennsylvania Obama +7.3 (21 votos)
All Battleground States
Los llamados "swing states" son:
En el noroeste: New Hampshire y Pennsylvania
En el sur: Arkansas (red), Florida y West Virginia (red)
En el mediooeste: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri (red) y Wisconsin
En la costa pacífico: Colorado Nevada y Nuevo México
Casi todos están inclinados hacia Obama, mientras que los tres que tienen (red) se inclinan hacia McCain en las encuestas (realclearpolitics)
Aunque si tomamos el mapa con "zonas no decididas", los estados de Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia y Florida están todavía morados, es decir, la diferencia entre ambos candidatos es de menos de 5 puntos.
Ambos Candidatos escriben en el Wall Street Journal:
The Change We Need - Senator Barack Obama, Wall Street Journal
What We're Fighting For - Senator John McCain, Wall Street Journal
Politico's Fred Barbash, 'Obama presidency could reshape the courts': 'Obama stands a greater chance than any Democratic President since Lyndon Johnson of making an impact on the both the appeals courts and the Supreme Court, especially if the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate, which must confirm appointments.'
Hoy el Washington Post publica:
Topic A
Election Day Surprises Dick Morris, James Carville, Heather Wilson and other political veterans anticipate the unexpected.
Crystal Ball '08
Time to Make a Call Outlook's 14th Crystal Ball election prediction contest pits new school against old.
Los republicanos dicen que los demócratas deben preocuparse por:
1) La tía Zeituni de Obama que resultó estar en el país indocumentada,
2) Pennsylvania, Ohio y Florida pues se acercan más ambos candidatos, lo que para McCain es muy bueno,
3) Sus encuestas que colocan a Obama más cerca de McCain ---o alrevés?
4) Los jóvenes, pues en los votos adelantados no han votado los jóvenes (y yo agrego, pues no el chiste es votar el 4 no antes, es parte del movimiento, de otra manera lo diluyes)
5) El efecto Bradley (El candidato negro Tom Bradley, quien se presentó para gobernador en California en 1982 contra George Deukmejian, en las encuestas Bradley tenía mucha ventaja, pero perdió, el análisis fué que mucha gente dijo que iba a votar por Bradley para no parecer racista, pero en la caseta, votaron republicano porque en el fondo, sí eran racistas).
Una cuestión muy interesante será el horario, recuerden que los Estados Unidos pasan por 5 husos horarios (UTC) desde Hawaii, Alaska, Pacific Standard Time (PST), Mountain Standard Time (MST), Central Standard Time (CST) que equivale al Tiempo Zona Centro en México y el East Standard Time (EST) por lo que la carrera puede verse así:
Obama 194-242-256-334-338
McCain 54-172-197-197-200
El centro rojo del país va a dar la sensación de que McCain se acerca, pero hay dos cosas importantes que recordar, en el centro el único estado grande es Texas con 34 votos, mientras que todos los demás dan menos de 10 y la West Coast, de acuerdo con las encuestas hoy, es toda de Obama, por lo que de ese lado McCain no obtendrá ningún voto. Cerrará con los 3 votos electorales de Alaska, mientras que Hawaii dará 4 más a Obama, para cerrar en 338 (mi apuesta). California será de los últimos estados en ser contados y el estado con más votos(55), así que dará un "empujón" muy grande a Obama, quién de acuerdo con las encuestas liderea allí.
The Politico, Mike Allen´s Politico Playbook:
THE ONE PARAGRAPH TO READ: Nate Silver, the prodigy behind FiveThirtyEight.com (the total number of electoral votes) smartly concludes: 'This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.
'Poll closings, from AP:
7 p.m. ET – Virginia (and some Florida)
7:30 p.m. ET -- Ohio
8 p.m. ET – Pennsylvania (and all Florida)
9 p.m. ET -- Colorado
10 p.m. ET - -Nevada
Extra**
Go to Playbook Now >>
APPENDIX: 'A state-by-state look at Election Day'
WASHINGTON (AP) - A state-by-state review of the race for the White House as well as key congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. The state's number of electoral votes is in parentheses.ALABAMA (9) - McCain territory. Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions safe. Each party struggling to hold an open House seat.ALASKA (3) - Running mate Sarah Palin's state safe for McCain. Convicted GOP Sen. Ted Stevens and Republican Rep. Don Young in deep trouble.ARIZONA (10) - McCain's home state should be safe but isn't quite. Democrats on track to pick up one House seat.ARKANSAS (6) - McCain's for sure. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor safe for re-election.CALIFORNIA (55) - Obama gets the biggest prize, 55 electoral votes of 270 needed. Close race to replace retiring Republican in the House.COLORADO (9) - Obama making a run in a red state. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall favored to win open Republican Senate seat.CONNECTICUT (7) - Easy win for Obama. Democrats try again to defeat Rep. Chris Shays.DELAWARE (3) - Obama's for sure in running mate's home state. Sen. Joe Biden winning new term as insurance policy. Lee Markell favored to keep governor's office in Democratic hands.DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3) - Obama country.FLORIDA (27) - Another tough southern fight for Obama and McCain. Democratic Rep. Kevin Mahoney headed for defeat, but Republicans expected to lose at least one seat of their own.GEORGIA (15) - McCain favored, but big early voting turnout gives Obama hope. GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss faces potential runoff on Dec. 2 in three-way race.HAWAII (4) - State where Obama spent part of his youth is safe for him.IDAHO (4) - McCain by far. Republican Jim Risch winning disgraced Sen. Larry Craig's seat. Democrats target Rep. Bill Sali.ILLINOIS (21) - Obama's home state safe. Democratic Sen. Durbin cruising to new term. Democrats favored to pick up at least one House seat.INDIANA (11) - Obama making a strong push in state next door to his own. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels favored.IOWA (7) - Obama's the favorite in state where caucuses launched him in January. Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin cruising to new term.KANSAS (6) - Easy win for McCain. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts safe. GOP makes a run at first-term Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda.KENTUCKY (8) - Safe for McCain. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in close and costly race. Democrats figure to pick up one House seat.LOUSIANA (9) - McCain's with ease. Democrats say Sen. Mary Landrieu safe but GOP makes a run.MAINE (4) - Obama, safely so. GOP Sen. Susan Collins coasting to third term.MARYLAND (10) - Obama territory. Democrats push to pick up open GOP House seat.MASSACHUSETTS (12) - Obama for sure. Sen. John Kerry gets new term four years after losing White House.MICHIGAN (17) - McCain conceded the state to Obama weeks ago. Democratic Sen. Carl Levin safe.MINNESOTA (10) - Part of Obama's base. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is in a difficult race vs. Al Franken and independent Dean Barkley.MISSISSIPPI (6) - Southern state for McCain. Appointed Sen. Roger Wicker struggling for final four years of term; veteran Sen. Thad Cochran safe for re-election.MISSOURI (11) - Classic presidential swing state. Democrat Jay Nixon favored to replace retiring Republican governor.MONTANA (3) - McCain favored, but Obama launched late push. Democratic Sen. Max Baucus and Gov, Brian Schweitzer safe for new terms.NEBRASKA (5) - McCain state; Obama making play for one electoral vote. Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns easy winner for seat of retiring Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel.NEVADA (5) - Western toss-up. Democrats take aim at GOP Rep. Jon Porter.NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) - Obama territory. GOP Sen. John Sununu in uphill climb for new term. Democratic Gov. John Lynch easy winner.NEW JERSEY (15) - Safe for Obama. Ditto Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Republican retirements create two highly competitive House races.NEW MEXICO (5) - Obama's to lose. Retirement of GOP Sen. Pete Domenici gives Democrats a pickup.NEW YORK (31) - Obama's for sure. Democrats close in on at least two GOP-held House seats.NORTH CAROLINA (15) - Polls close in one of Obama's southern targets. GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan consistently in polls. Close gubernatorial contest.NORTH DAKOTA (3) - Leaning McCain. Republican Gov. John Hoeven on track for new term.OHIO (20) - Obama ahead in late polls in state McCain must win. Democrats on track to pick up at least one House seat.OKLAHOMA (7) - McCain's by far. Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe safe for new term.OREGON (7) - Obama's an easy winner in mail-in ballot state. Also made a television commercial to help Jeff Merkley, in extremely close race against GOP Sen. Gordon Smith.PENNSYLVANIA (21) - Obama ahead in polls in blue state that McCain targeted. Democratic Reps. Paul Kanjorski and John Murtha in jeopardy.RHODE ISLAND (4) - Part of Obama's base. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed a sure bet for new term.SOUTH CAROLINA (8) - McCain's with ease. Close ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on track for re-election.SOUTH DAKOTA (3) - McCain country. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson safe despite lingering speech problems stemming from brain hemorrhage in 2006.TENNESSEE (11) - Easy win for McCain. GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander coasting.TEXAS (34) - President Bush's home state for McCain. GOP Sen. John Cornyn on track for new term.UTAH (5) - As safe as anything can be for McCain. Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman coasting to new term.VERMONT (3) - Obama territory. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas favored but race could go to legislature.VIRGINIA (13) - Obama seems ahead in traditionally Republican state. Mark Warner should win open GOP Senate seat. Democrats figure to gain at least one seat in House.WASHINGTON (11) - Obama with ease. Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire in tough rematch vs. 2004 foe.WEST VIRGINIA (5) - McCain favored, but Obama ran ads late. Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Gov. Joe Manchin safe for new term.WISCONSIN (10) - Obama territory. Republicans challenge Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen.WYOMING (3) - Safe for McCain. One full Senate term and one partial, both easy GOP victories.
También***Chuck Todd’s state-by-state election guide ***
NBC’s political director tells you what to expect in each state on Tuesday
Aquí pego solamente los estados que hay que ver:
Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in "toss-up" land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I'd make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party's groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party's comeback should start in one of these two states because they are microcosms of the GOP's issues.
Nevada: As I've been hinting for quite a bit, the situation facing state Republican parties across the country has as much to do with McCain's problems in some battlegrounds as it has to do with Bush. The state GOP in Nevada is a mess because of the nutty problems besetting the state's Republican governor, Jim Gibbons. The guy has had a high-profile divorce from, shall we say, his very colorful ex-wife. He's also had a bout or two with ethics issues. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has organized the heck out of this state and while I expect it to be very close on Election Day, McCain's got issues in Nevada. He may yet eke it out, but we shall see. As for down the ballot, I'm keeping an eye on the 3rd District where Republican Jon Porter — who is preparing to challenge Harry Reid in 2010 — appears to be the slight underdog against Democrat Dina Titus. Porter has a way of making comebacks so don't count him out.
Ohio: One of the better state Republican parties is right here in the Buckeye State; it's why so many of us aren't ready to count McCain out yet in Ohio. The Republican machine is a good one. The Democrats had a terrible state organization here before 2004 but have since put together a very impressive operation. If Ohio does go south on McCain, he could take a couple of House seats down with him, giving the Democrats control of that House delegation. The two Cincinnati-area House races, as well as the open seats are what the Republicans are worried about.
Pennsylvania: Ah, the Keystone state. Is it in play or not? The McCain folks have no choice but to believe that it is. They are hoping that party I.D. snaps back and that some sort of race component kicks in to salvage McCain. I don't know. If George W. Bush couldn't carry the state, why should we believe McCain can? Ironically, Republicans have a shot at winning two House seats thanks to incumbent Democratic gaffes; Both Jack Murtha and Paul Kanjorski are on the brink. Could Pennsylvania be the only state in the union where Republicans net more House seats than Democrats?
Virginia: This state and the Republican Party are just not in sync. I'm convinced if the state GOP were in better shape, McCain would be in better shape. But because the state party is such a mess, McCain's in trouble. Mark Warner is coasting to an easy senate victory and the GOP could lose one to three House seats. Just a devastating time to be a Republican in Virginia.
------------
Además de los candidatos favoritos de los medios y de Gera´s Place, existen muchos otros por los siguientes partidos:
Ralph Nader (Candidato Independiente)
Partido Libertario
Partido de la Constitución
Partido Verde
Partido Independiente
Partido Boston Tea
Partido de la Prohibición
Partido de la Reforma de los Estados Unidos
Partido Socialista
Partido Socialista de los Trabajadores
Partido por el Socialismo y la Liberación
domingo, 2 de noviembre de 2008
Boston Globe
El Boston Globe de hoy publica tres artículos interesantes:
1) Is the Reagan Revolution Over?; 2) Is America prepared to go beyond it´s racial divisions?; 3) Are young people becoming a driving force in American politics?; 4) How much do Americans care about their image in the world? and 5) What does it mean to be a conservative?
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)
Entradas
